Charlesworth Capital

← Research themes · Last updated 24 Oct 2026

Old railway tracks and telegraph poles running beside rows of glowing server racks into the mist

AI capex vs. history's great buildouts

Hyperscaler spending from 10-K filings, set against railroads, electrification, highways and fibre, then adjusted for how fast AI hardware wears out.

Thesis being trackedAs a share of GDP, AI capex is already at the scale of history's great infrastructure booms. But the assets depreciate in about 5–6 years rather than decades, so the revenue needed to justify it is far higher than the headline comparisons suggest.

Tags: Sourced means a published figure; Computed means this site calculated it from sourced inputs.

Hyperscaler capex from filings

Hyperscaler capital expenditure by fiscal year

US$ billions

Cash paid for property & equipment from each company's 10-K (XBRL tag PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment; Amazon falls back to PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets where needed). Fiscal years differ: Microsoft ends June, Oracle ends May. Excludes finance leases, so understates total spend for Microsoft/Amazon. Latest year may be missing for firms that have not yet filed.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (10-K filings) [2] [3] [4] [5] · Data as of 30 Jun 2026 · fetched 24 Oct 2026
View the data / CSV

Five-firm capex as % of US GDP (computed)

% of US GDP

Computed by this site: sum of the five firms' fiscal-year capex (global, not only US) divided by US nominal GDP for the calendar year of the same number (FRED GDPA). Only years where all five have filed are shown. A rough scale comparison, not a national-accounts measure.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-K capex); BEA GDP via FRED (GDPA); ratio computed by this site [2] · Data as of 2025 · fetched 24 Oct 2026
View the data / CSV

Filed figures

84 rows
CompanyFYPeriod endCapex ($bn)XBRL conceptAccession
Microsoft200830 Jun 20083.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-10-171791
Microsoft200930 Jun 20093.1PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-10-171791
Microsoft201030 Jun 20102.0PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-10-171791
Microsoft201130 Jun 20112.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-11-200680
Microsoft201230 Jun 20122.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-12-316848
Microsoft201330 Jun 20134.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-13-310206
Microsoft201430 Jun 20145.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-14-289961
Microsoft201530 Jun 20155.9PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-15-272806
Microsoft201630 Jun 20168.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-16-662209
Microsoft201730 Jun 20178.1PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-17-014900
Microsoft201830 Jun 201811.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-18-019062
Microsoft201930 Jun 201913.9PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-19-027952
Microsoft202030 Jun 202015.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-20-034944
Microsoft202130 Jun 202120.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-21-039151
Microsoft202230 Jun 202223.9PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-22-026876
Microsoft202330 Jun 202328.1PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0000950170-23-035122
Microsoft202430 Jun 202444.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0000950170-24-087843
Microsoft202530 Jun 202564.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0000950170-25-100235
Microsoft202630 Jun 2026116.0PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-26-323660
Alphabet201331 Dec 20137.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-16-000012
Alphabet201431 Dec 201411.0PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-16-000012
Alphabet201531 Dec 20159.9PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-16-000012
Alphabet201631 Dec 201610.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-17-000008
Alphabet201731 Dec 201713.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-18-000007
Alphabet201831 Dec 201825.1PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-19-000004
Alphabet201931 Dec 201923.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-20-000008
Alphabet202031 Dec 202022.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-21-000010
Alphabet202131 Dec 202124.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-22-000019
Alphabet202231 Dec 202231.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-23-000016
Alphabet202331 Dec 202332.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-24-000022
Alphabet202431 Dec 202452.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-25-000014
Alphabet202531 Dec 202591.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001652044-26-000018
Amazon200731 Dec 20070.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-10-016098
Amazon200831 Dec 20080.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-10-016098
Amazon200931 Dec 20090.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-10-016098
Amazon201031 Dec 20101.0PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-11-016253
Amazon201131 Dec 20111.8PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-12-032846
Amazon201231 Dec 20123.8PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-13-028520
Amazon201331 Dec 20133.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001018724-14-000006
Amazon201431 Dec 20144.9PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001018724-15-000006
Amazon201531 Dec 20154.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001018724-16-000172
Amazon201631 Dec 20166.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001018724-17-000011
Amazon201731 Dec 201712.0PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-19-000004
Amazon201831 Dec 201813.4PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-19-000004
Amazon201931 Dec 201916.9PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-20-000004
Amazon202031 Dec 202040.1PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-21-000004
Amazon202131 Dec 202161.1PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-22-000005
Amazon202231 Dec 202263.7PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-23-000004
Amazon202331 Dec 202352.7PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-24-000008
Amazon202431 Dec 202483.0PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-25-000004
Amazon202531 Dec 2025131.8PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets0001018724-26-000004
Meta201031 Dec 20100.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-13-000003
Meta201131 Dec 20110.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-13-000003
Meta201231 Dec 20121.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-13-000003
Meta201331 Dec 20131.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-14-000007
Meta201431 Dec 20141.8PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-15-000006
Meta201531 Dec 20152.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-16-000043
Meta201631 Dec 20164.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-17-000007
Meta201731 Dec 20176.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-18-000009
Meta201831 Dec 201813.9PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-19-000009
Meta201931 Dec 201915.1PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-20-000013
Meta202031 Dec 202015.1PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-21-000014
Meta202131 Dec 202118.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-22-000018
Meta202231 Dec 202231.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-23-000013
Meta202331 Dec 202327.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-24-000012
Meta202431 Dec 202437.3PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001326801-25-000017
Meta202531 Dec 202569.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001628280-26-003942
Oracle201031 May 20100.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-12-284007
Oracle201131 May 20110.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-12-284007
Oracle201231 May 20120.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-12-284007
Oracle201331 May 20130.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-13-272832
Oracle201431 May 20140.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-14-251351
Oracle201531 May 20151.4PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-15-235239
Oracle201631 May 20161.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-16-628942
Oracle201731 May 20172.0PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-17-214833
Oracle201831 May 20181.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-18-201034
Oracle201931 May 20191.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-19-023119
Oracle202031 May 20201.6PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-20-030125
Oracle202131 May 20212.1PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-21-033616
Oracle202231 May 20224.5PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001564590-22-023675
Oracle202331 May 20238.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0000950170-23-028914
Oracle202431 May 20246.9PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0000950170-24-075605
Oracle202531 May 202521.2PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0000950170-25-087926
Oracle202631 May 202655.7PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment0001193125-26-277521
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company concept API · as of 30 Jun 2026 · fetched 24 Oct 2026 · Download CSV (all columns)

What to watch

  • Quarterly capex guidance from each firm.
  • Finance leases and off-balance-sheet data-centre deals (e.g. SPVs), which do not appear in this capex line.
  • Alphabet's FY2026 10-K (it reports on a calendar year), which completes the 2026 five-firm total.

Reading

Compared with history

BuildoutPeriodAverage % of GDPPeak / single-year % of GDPPeak yearTypeSource / note
Canals1836–18410.660.901840SourcedVan Nieuwerburgh, Financing the AI Buildout, BPEA Fall 2026 draft, Table 1 & App. C
Railroads1870–18902.24n/a>4% in 1870 and 1881SourcedVan Nieuwerburgh, Financing the AI Buildout, BPEA Fall 2026 draft, Table 1 & App. C. Construction only, in constant 1860 dollars (Gallman). Fox, Advisor Perspectives, Oct 2025 cites Ulmer (1960): about 2.4% average in the 1870s–80s, near 6% early on.
Electrification (electric utilities)1905–19250.500.961924SourcedVan Nieuwerburgh, Financing the AI Buildout, BPEA Fall 2026 draft, Table 1 & App. C (Ulmer 1960 series)
Highways (all government highway capital outlays; Interstate era)1956–19731.131.321958SourcedVan Nieuwerburgh, Financing the AI Buildout, BPEA Fall 2026 draft, Table 1 & App. C (FHWA series)
Telecom & fibre1996–20031.101.392000SourcedVan Nieuwerburgh, Financing the AI Buildout, BPEA Fall 2026 draft, Table 1 & App. C (BEA communications investment)
AI: five hyperscalers' capex (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL)FY2025n/a1.232025ComputedComputed by this site: 10-K capex ÷ FRED nominal GDP (chart above). It is consistent with Wachter slides (1.2% in 2025).
AI: data-centre capex (Exante estimate)2025n/a1.302025SourcedFox, Advisor Perspectives, Oct 2025: $387bn, about 1.3% of GDP.
AI buildout (projected)2025–20323.63n/aprojectionSourcedVan Nieuwerburgh, Financing the AI Buildout, BPEA Fall 2026 draft, Table 1 & App. C. A scenario, not data.
The historical shares measure different things (construction only, utilities only, all government highway outlays), so treat them as approximate scale comparisons. The five-firm figure excludes other AI spenders (xAI, OpenAI/Stargate, CoreWeave, sovereign projects).

What to watch

  • Final BPEA publication of the Van Nieuwerburgh paper.
  • BEA data on information-processing investment as a share of GDP.

Reading

Adjusting for useful life

Railroad track and highways last decades. Servers and GPUs are depreciated over about 5–6 years, and the firms have lengthened those lives, which flatters reported earnings.

Useful-life policies (10-K disclosures)

CompanyServer / network useful-life policyType
MicrosoftServers and network equipment: lives extended from 4 to 6 years in FY2023 (about +$3.7bn operating income that year). The current range is 2–6 years.Sourced
AlphabetServers and network equipment: 6 years from 2023 (depreciation about $3.9bn lower).Sourced
AmazonServers: 5 to 6 years in 2024. A subset was shortened back to 5 years from 2025 (about $1.4bn more depreciation) 10-K note.Sourced
MetaServers and network: extended to 5.5 years from January 2025 (depreciation about $2.92bn lower) 10-K note.Sourced
OracleServers: lives lengthened in steps from 4 to 5 to 6 years.Sourced
From the companies' 10-K filings (depreciation notes).

Five-firm capex vs. implied annual depreciation under different useful lives

US$ billions per year · computed by this site

Computed by this site: straight-line depreciation of each year's total five-firm capex (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL) over the stated life, starting the year after spend. Applies one life to all capex, although buildings and land are depreciated over much longer lives or not at all, so this overstates the burden for the non-server share. Fiscal years are mixed. Only years where all five firms have filed are used.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K capex; depreciation computed by this site · Data as of 2025 · fetched 24 Oct 2026
View the data / CSV

Depreciation calculator illustrative

Default capex is the sourced five-firm total for fiscal 2025 ($379B, from 10-K filings above; see the five rows ). Everything below the inputs is computed with simple straight-line maths; it is not a forecast.

—
Depreciation per year from one year's capex (capex ÷ life), charged every year of that life
—
Capital charge per year (cost of capital × average net book value, capex ÷ 2)
—
Annual revenue needed from that vintage to cover both at the gross margin
—
Change in annual depreciation vs. a 6-year life

Shorter life ⇒ faster write-off ⇒ bigger annual expense and more revenue needed. Hyperscalers currently book servers over 5–6 years; if GPUs become economically obsolete in ~3 years, reported earnings overstate the true annual cost. If capex stays flat at this level, total annual depreciation converges to the full capex figure after one life-span. Excludes land/buildings (longer lives), power, staff and other opex.

What to watch

  • Further life changes. Amazon has already shortened some lives, so watch whether others follow.
  • GPU rental prices for older generations (e.g. H100), a market signal of economic life.

Reading

Signals

Bubble / overbuild signals

  • Capex keeps compounding: the five-firm total rose from about 0.6% to about 1.2% of GDP between 2022 and 2025 (computed).
  • Rising depreciation is visible in hyperscaler margins.
  • AI revenue growth lags the capex needed (the Sequoia framing).

Sustainable-buildout signals

  • AI revenue scales fast enough to cover depreciation and the cost of capital (use the calculator).
  • Old GPUs keep earning, which justifies longer lives.
  • Capex has historically been followed by productivity gains (electrification).

What to watch

  • Reported AI revenue run-rates from Microsoft, Google, Amazon and the labs.

Reading

  • Trends— Epoch AI, 2026
    Compute cost and hardware trends.
  • Energy and AI— IEA, 2025-04
    The power side of the buildout.

Prediction markets

Live prices from public prediction markets, snapshotted by scripts/update_markets.py. A price of 30% means traders pay about 30¢ for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens; treat it as a crowd estimate, not a fact. Polymarket and Kalshi are real-money markets (Kalshi is CFTC-regulated); Manifold uses play money and is often thin. Long-dated and low-volume markets are poorly calibrated. Each market's exact resolution rules on the platform decide what counts, so read them before relying on a headline question.

Bubble or boom

Polymarket AI bubble burst in 2026? · December 31, 2026
9%
$2.5M vol · $25k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?
23%
$44k vol · $17k liquidity · closes 2027-07-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? · $170 billion
95%
$1k vol · $578 liquidity · closes 2027-05-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? · $180 billion
96%
$7k vol · $557 liquidity · closes 2027-05-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Amazon 2026 capex above $190B? · $190 billion
96%
$6k vol · $631 liquidity · closes 2027-05-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Amazon 2026 capex above $200B? · $200 billion
92%
$6k vol · $649 liquidity · closes 2027-05-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC

Compute prices (depreciation signal)

Polymarket Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? · $6.00-$6.50
18%
$2k vol · $977 liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026? · $5.50-$6.00
16%
$9k vol · $5k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? · $6.50-$7.00
16%
$1k vol · $983 liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026? · $4.00-$4.50
16%
$9k vol · $3k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on December 31, 2026? · $7.00-$7.50
15%
$1k vol · $998 liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC

Backlash and constraints

Kalshi Will any state enact data center moratorium legislation before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027
31% bid 27¢ / ask 31¢
10k contracts · 4k open interest · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Kalshi Will any state enact data center moratorium legislation before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027
59% bid 50¢ / ask 60¢
242 contracts · 133 open interest · closes 2027-07-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Kalshi Will any state enact data center moratorium legislation before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028
93% bid 86¢ / ask 93¢
629 contracts · 181 open interest · closes 2028-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
2%
$263k vol · $60k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
12%
$414k vol · $37k liquidity · closes 2027-07-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
20%
$5.1M vol · $32k liquidity · closes 2028-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · December 31, 2026
4%
$1.1M vol · $40k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? · March 31, 2027
21%
$7k vol · $12k liquidity · closes 2027-04-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?
45%
$11k vol · $5k liquidity · closes 2027-07-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC
Polymarket Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? · September 30, 2026 resolved: No
0%
$151k vol · closes 2026-10-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC

Snapshot fetched 2026-10-30 17:39 UTC from public APIs (Polymarket Gamma/CLOB, Kalshi trade API, Manifold v0). Prices are what traders are paying, not my forecasts and not advice; thin or long-dated markets can be far off. Sparklines show daily prices over up to 120 days. Metaculus: API now requires an authenticated account token (HTTP 403 without one) and the website is behind a bot challenge, so Metaculus forecasts are not included. Add a ref type with a personal token later if wanted.

How to add a market

Add a ref to "markets" → "groups" → "refs" in src/themes/<slug>.json: {"platform":"polymarket","event":"<slug after /event/ in the URL>"}, {"platform":"kalshi","event":"<EVENT_TICKER>"} or {"platform":"manifold","id":"<market id or slug>"}. Optional: "markets" (list of specific sub-market slugs or tickers), "max", "sort" (date, prob or api). Then run python3 scripts/update_markets.py <slug> and rebuild.

Notes & journal

Dated observations from src/notes/ai-capex-history.md. Add a new entry with a ## YYYY-MM-DD Title heading.

24 Oct 2026

Baseline

Five-firm capex reached about 1.23% of US GDP in 2025 (computed from 10-Ks), above the telecom-boom average of 1.10% and approaching its 1.39% peak in 2000 (Van Nieuwerburgh, BPEA 2026). Alphabet's FY2026 10-K will complete the 2026 total.

Data behind this figure