24 Oct 2026
Baseline
UCDP v26.1 (data for 2025) is loaded. The active-conflict table above lists every state-based conflict that year. The Global Peace Index is pending (no open download).
← Research themes · Last updated 30 Oct 2026
World War 3 risk
Is the world drifting toward a great-power war? Conflict counts, deaths, military spending and nuclear posture.
Thesis being trackedThe risk of a direct great-power war is rising: more state-based conflicts, record military spending, eroding arms control and multiple flashpoints involving nuclear powers.
Conflict data come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP/PRIO) and Our World in Data. Military spending comes from SIPRI via OWID. These measure organised violence with at least 25 battle deaths per year; they do not measure the probability of a world war directly.
How many wars are being fought?
2025
Year with the most state-based conflicts since 1946 (65)
computed from UCDP/PRIO
See every year since 1946 Counts computed by this site from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v26.1 (data year 2025, fetched 30 Oct 2026). A "conflict" is a dyad-level contested incompatibility with ≥25 battle deaths in the year, so one war (e.g. Russia–Ukraine) can be one entry while a single country can host several.
Active state-based armed conflicts per year, by type
conflicts
A conflict is counted in a year if it caused ≥25 battle-related deaths. Internationalised intrastate = civil war with foreign troops on one or both sides.
Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v26.1 (Uppsala Conflict Data Program)
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
Wars vs. minor conflicts per year
conflicts
Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v26.1
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
Number of armed conflicts worldwide, by type
conflicts
UCDP counts. 'Non-state' = between non-government groups; 'one-sided' = organised violence against civilians.
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Peace Research Institute Oslo (2026); geoBoundaries (2023) – processed by Our World in Data
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 24 Oct 2026
Currently active: state-based conflicts in the latest UCDP year
65 rows
| Location | Side A | Side B | Type | Intensity | Backers of side B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkina Faso | Government of Burkina Faso | JNIM | Internationalised intrastate | War | |
| DR Congo (Zaire) | Government of DR Congo (Zaire) | AFC, CRP | Internationalised intrastate | War | Government of Rwanda |
| Ethiopia | Government of Ethiopia | Fano | Intrastate | War | |
| Haiti | Government of Haiti | Viv Ansanm | Internationalised intrastate | War | |
| Iran, Israel | Government of Iran | Government of Israel | Interstate | War | Government of United States of America |
| Israel | Government of Israel | Hamas, Palestinian Mujahideen Movement, PIJ, PRC | Intrastate | War | |
| Mali | Government of Mali | JNIM | Internationalised intrastate | War | |
| Myanmar (Burma) | Government of Myanmar (Burma) | NUG, PSLF | Intrastate | War | |
| Nigeria | Government of Nigeria | IS | Internationalised intrastate | War | |
| Pakistan | Government of Pakistan | HGB, IMP, TTP | Intrastate | War | |
| Russia (Soviet Union), Ukraine | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) | Government of Ukraine | Interstate | War | |
| Somalia | Government of Somalia | Al-Shabaab | Internationalised intrastate | War | |
| Sudan | Government of Sudan | RSF, SFA, SPLM/A-North | Intrastate | War | |
| Afghanistan | Government of Afghanistan | NRF | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Afghanistan | Government of Afghanistan | IS | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Afghanistan, Pakistan | Government of Afghanistan | Government of Pakistan | Interstate | Minor | |
| Angola | Government of Angola | FLEC-FAC-TN | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Benin | Government of Benin | JNIM | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Burkina Faso | Government of Burkina Faso | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Cambodia (Kampuchea), Thailand | Government of Cambodia (Kampuchea) | Government of Thailand | Interstate | Minor | |
| Cameroon | Government of Cameroon | JAS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Cameroon | Government of Cameroon | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Cameroon | Government of Cameroon | Ambazonia insurgents | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Central African Republic | Government of Central African Republic | CMSPR, CPC, CPC-F | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Colombia | Government of Colombia | ELN, EMBF, FARC-EMC | Intrastate | Minor | |
| DR Congo (Zaire) | Government of DR Congo (Zaire) | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Ethiopia | Government of Ethiopia | OLA | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| India | Government of India | CPI-Maoist | Intrastate | Minor | |
| India | Government of India | Kashmir insurgents | Intrastate | Minor | |
| India | Government of India | UNLFW | Intrastate | Minor | |
| India, Pakistan | Government of India | Government of Pakistan | Interstate | Minor | |
| Indonesia | Government of Indonesia | OPM | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Iran | Government of Iran | Jaish al-Adl | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Iraq | Government of Iraq | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Israel | Government of Israel | Hezbollah | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Israel, Syria | Government of Israel | Government of Syria | Interstate | Minor | |
| Israel, Yemen (North Yemen) | Government of Israel | Government of Yemen (North Yemen) | Interstate | Minor | |
| Kenya | Government of Kenya | Al-Shabaab | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Mali | Government of Mali | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Mali | Government of Mali | FLA | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Mozambique | Government of Mozambique | Naparama | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Mozambique | Government of Mozambique | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Myanmar (Burma) | Government of Myanmar (Burma) | KNU | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Myanmar (Burma) | Government of Myanmar (Burma) | ULA | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Myanmar (Burma) | Government of Myanmar (Burma) | KIO | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Myanmar (Burma) | Government of Myanmar (Burma) | KNPP | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Niger | Government of Niger | JNIM | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Niger | Government of Niger | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Nigeria | Government of Nigeria | JAS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Nigeria | Government of Nigeria | IPOB | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Pakistan | Government of Pakistan | BRAS | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Pakistan | Government of Pakistan | IS | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Philippines | Government of Philippines | CPP | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Rwanda | Government of Rwanda | FDLR-FOCA | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Somalia | Government of Somalia | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| South Sudan | Government of South Sudan | SPLM/A - IO | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Syria | Government of Syria | Military Council for the Liberation of Syria | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Syria | Government of Syria | IS | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Syria | Government of Syria | SDF | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | |
| Thailand | Government of Thailand | Patani insurgents | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Togo | Government of Togo | JNIM | Intrastate | Minor | |
| Turkey | Government of Turkey | PKK | Intrastate | Minor | |
| United Kingdom, United States of America, Yemen (North Yemen) | Government of United Kingdom, Government of United States of America | Government of Yemen (North Yemen) | Interstate | Minor | |
| Yemen (North Yemen) | Government of Yemen (North Yemen) | Forces of the Presidential Leadership Council | Internationalised intrastate | Minor | Government of Bahrain, Government of Saudi Arabia, Government of United Arab Emirates |
| Yemen (North Yemen) | Government of Yemen (North Yemen) | STC | Intrastate | Minor |
"War" means at least 1,000 battle deaths in the year; "Minor" means 25–999.Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v26.1 · as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026 · Download CSV (all columns)
What to watch
- The annual UCDP release (usually June): the count of interstate conflicts and conflicts internationalised by outside states.
- Conflicts where nuclear-armed states are on opposite sides, directly or as backers.
- CrisisWatch and CFR monthly updates on deteriorating situations.
Reading
- UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program— Uppsala University, 2026The primary dataset behind the conflict charts.
- War and Peace— Our World in Data, 2025Long-run context and definitions.
- Global Conflict Tracker— Council on Foreign Relations, 2026Status of conflicts most relevant to US interests.
- Conflicts to Watch in 2026— CFR Preventive Priorities Survey, 2025-12Expert ranking of likely and high-impact conflicts.
- Armed Conflict Survey— IISS, 2025Annual review of conflict dynamics.
Conflict deaths, relative to world population
Deaths are shown per 100,000 world population by default, so that eras with very different populations can be compared. Use the buttons to switch to % of population or absolute counts. The long-run chart below goes back to 1400 using different historical datasets; each source is labelled and dashed lines mark where sources change.
Deaths in state-based conflicts per 100,000 world population, by type
deaths per 100,000 people
Default view. Deaths in state-based conflicts divided by world population. PRIO Battle Deaths (1946–1988) and UCDP (1989 onward) are different datasets; the dashed line at 1989 marks the switch.
State-based conflicts only (a government is a party): PRIO Battle Deaths best estimates for 1946–1988, UCDP for 1989 onward. The two projects use similar but not identical rules, so the join at 1989 is a source break. Rates use OWID's world population series (HYDE, Gapminder, UN World Population Prospects) for the year in question.
Dashed vertical lines mark source breaks: 1989: PRIO (1946–88) → UCDP (1989+).
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2026) and other sources – with minor processing by Our World in Data [2] [3]
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
Deaths in state-based conflicts as % of world population, by type
% of world population · computed by this site
The same series expressed as a percentage of world population (per 100,000 ÷ 1,000), computed by this site.
State-based conflicts only (a government is a party): PRIO Battle Deaths best estimates for 1946–1988, UCDP for 1989 onward. The two projects use similar but not identical rules, so the join at 1989 is a source break. Computed by this site as the OWID rate per 100,000 ÷ 1,000.
Dashed vertical lines mark source breaks: 1989: PRIO (1946–88) → UCDP (1989+).
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2026) and other sources – with minor processing by Our World in Data [2] [3]
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
Deaths in state-based conflicts, by type (absolute)
deaths
Raw death counts, not adjusted for population growth (world population rose from about 2.5bn in 1950 to about 8.2bn).
State-based conflicts only (a government is a party): PRIO Battle Deaths best estimates for 1946–1988, UCDP for 1989 onward. The two projects use similar but not identical rules, so the join at 1989 is a source break.
Dashed vertical lines mark source breaks: 1989: PRIO (1946–88) → UCDP (1989+).
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2026); geoBoundaries (2023); Peace Research Institute Oslo (2017) – processed by Our World in Data [2] [3]
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
Deaths in all armed conflicts per 100,000 world population, by type (UCDP)
deaths per 100,000 people
UCDP only. Adds non-state conflict and one-sided violence against civilians, which the state-based series above leave out.
UCDP best estimates of direct violent deaths, all five violence types, 1989 onward. Rates use OWID's world population series (HYDE, Gapminder, UN World Population Prospects) for the year in question.
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2026); geoBoundaries (2023); Population based on various sources (2024) – with minor processing by Our World in Data [2] [3]
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
Deaths in armed conflicts worldwide, by type
deaths
UCDP best estimates of direct violent deaths (combatants and civilians).
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2026); geoBoundaries (2023) – processed by Our World in Data
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 24 Oct 2026
Conflict deaths per 100,000 world population since 1400, three sources
deaths per 100,000 people · computed by this site
Three separate sources, each drawn as its own line and never spliced: the Conflict Catalog (Brecke; 1400–2000), Correlates of War wars (1816–2014) and PRIO/UCDP state-based battle deaths (1946 onward). They count different things: the Catalog counts all deaths in a conflict, including from disease and starvation, while COW and PRIO/UCDP count battle deaths only. Read the gaps between the lines as method differences, not as trends. Log scale is on by default; use the button to switch it off.
Three different sources, shown as separate lines and never spliced: Brecke's Conflict Catalog (1400–2000; all violent political conflicts ≥32 deaths/yr, including deaths from disease and starvation, deaths spread evenly over a conflict's years, unknown tolls set to 32), Correlates of War wars (1816–2014; wars ≥1,000 battle deaths/yr, sum of its four war types, computed by this site), and PRIO (1946–88) joined with UCDP (1989+) state-based conflicts (direct battle deaths, sum of types, computed by this site). Older figures are far less complete, especially outside Europe. Vertical lines mark where sources start, end or change. Rates use OWID's world population series (HYDE, Gapminder, UN World Population Prospects) for the year in question. Zero years are left blank on the log scale.
Dashed vertical lines mark source breaks: 1816: COW starts; 1946: PRIO starts; 1989: UCDP replaces PRIO; 2000: Conflict Catalog ends.
Source: Brecke – Conflict Catalog (1999); Population based on various sources (2023) – with major processing by Our World in Data; Correlates of War – Wars (2020); Population based on various sources (2023) – with minor processing by Our World in Data; Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2026) and other sources – with minor processing by Our World in Data [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
Conflict deaths since 1400, three sources (absolute)
deaths · computed by this site
Three different sources, shown as separate lines and never spliced: Brecke's Conflict Catalog (1400–2000; all violent political conflicts ≥32 deaths/yr, including deaths from disease and starvation, deaths spread evenly over a conflict's years, unknown tolls set to 32), Correlates of War wars (1816–2014; wars ≥1,000 battle deaths/yr, sum of its four war types, computed by this site), and PRIO (1946–88) joined with UCDP (1989+) state-based conflicts (direct battle deaths, sum of types, computed by this site). Older figures are far less complete, especially outside Europe. Vertical lines mark where sources start, end or change. Zero years are left blank on the log scale.
Dashed vertical lines mark source breaks: 1816: COW starts; 1946: PRIO starts; 1989: UCDP replaces PRIO; 2000: Conflict Catalog ends.
Source: Brecke – Conflict Catalog (1999); Population based on various sources (2023) – with major processing by Our World in Data; Correlates of War – Wars (2020); Population based on various sources (2023) – with minor processing by Our World in Data; Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2026) and other sources – with minor processing by Our World in Data [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 30 Oct 2026
What to watch
- Interstate battle deaths, the category that would spike first in a great-power war.
- Revisions: UCDP figures for the latest year are often revised upwards.
Reading
- ACLED Conflict Index— ACLED, 2025-12An independent event-based count to cross-check UCDP.
- Global Peace Index maps— Institute for Economics & Peace, 2026Composite peacefulness index (the data download is pending here).
Military spending
World military expenditure (SIPRI)
US$ billions, constant 2024
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2026) – with minor processing by Our World in Data
· Data as of 2025 · fetched 24 Oct 2026
Data pending
Global Peace Index
GPI scores are not available as an open CSV/API; UCDP conflict exposure is used as the peace proxy instead.
Intended source: Institute for Economics & Peace
What to watch
- The SIPRI annual fact sheet (April): world total and the US, China, Russia, Europe and NATO 2%/3.5%/5% targets.
- Defence budgets passed in Japan, Germany, Poland and Taiwan.
Reading
- Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025— SIPRI, 2026-04The latest official world total.
- SIPRI Military Expenditure Database— SIPRI, 2026Country-level series.
Signals: great powers, nuclear posture, flashpoints
These are qualitative signals with sources. They are not scored.
Escalatory signals
- Arms-control erosion: New START, the last US–Russia treaty limiting strategic forces, was due to expire in February 2026 (ACA).
- SIPRI Yearbook 2025 warned of a new nuclear arms race as arsenals grow, with China's growing fastest (SIPRI).
- The Doomsday Clock is at its closest-ever setting to midnight (Bulletin).
- More conflicts are internationalised, with outside states sending troops (UCDP chart above).
Stabilising signals
- Interstate conflicts remain a small share of all conflicts; most are intrastate (UCDP).
- Nuclear powers have so far avoided direct combat with each other, even in Ukraine.
- New crisis-communication channels or arms-control talks would be a de-escalation signal.
- Any extended ceasefire in Ukraine or the Middle East.
What to watch
- Taiwan Strait: PLA exercise frequency and scale.
- Russia–NATO: incidents on the eastern flank, and nuclear signalling.
- Korean peninsula and India–Pakistan: missile tests and crises.
- Middle East: direct state-on-state strikes.
Reading
- Status of World Nuclear Forces— Federation of American Scientists, 2025Warhead counts by country.
- New START at a Glance— Arms Control Association, 2026Treaty status and limits.
- Doomsday Clock statement— Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2026-01Annual expert assessment.
- SIPRI Yearbook 2025 press release— SIPRI, 2025-06-16Nuclear arsenal trends.
Prediction markets
Live prices from public prediction markets, snapshotted by scripts/update_markets.py. A price of 30% means traders pay about 30¢ for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens; treat it as a crowd estimate, not a fact. Polymarket and Kalshi are real-money markets (Kalshi is CFTC-regulated); Manifold uses play money and is often thin. Long-dated and low-volume markets are poorly calibrated. Each market's exact resolution rules on the platform decide what counts, so read them before relying on a headline question.
US–China and Taiwan
Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%
$45.4M vol · $298k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
10%
$3.6M vol · $196k liquidity · closes 2028-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Polymarket China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
5%
$3.5M vol · $83k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Polymarket Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
3%
$441k vol · $65k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Polymarket US x China Military clash before 2027?
3%
$219k vol · $44k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
NATO–Russia and Ukraine
1%
$4.4M vol · $216k liquidity · closes 2026-11-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
5%
$366k vol · $39k liquidity · closes 2026-11-16 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
8%
$133k vol · $23k liquidity · closes 2026-12-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
17%
$3.5M vol · $105k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
4%
$463k vol · $68k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
0%
$3k vol · $0 liquidity · closes 2026-10-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
4%
$160k vol · $27k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
1%
$2.7M vol · $61k liquidity · closes 2026-11-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
7%
$136k vol · $49k liquidity · closes 2026-12-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
14%
$3.1M vol · $151k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Nuclear use and testing
7%
Ṁ38k play-money · 214 traders · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
3%
Ṁ23k play-money · 58 traders · closes 2026-12-31 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
14%
Ṁ1k play-money · 23 traders · closes 2030-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
5%
$123k vol · $21k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Polymarket Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · September 30, 2026 resolved: No
0%
$176k vol · $0 liquidity · closes 2026-10-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
5%
$87k vol · $17k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Polymarket Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · September 30, 2026 resolved: No
0%
$62k vol · closes 2026-10-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Polymarket Iran Nuke before 2027?
5%
$1.5M vol · $102k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Other flashpoints
Polymarket Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
$76.0M vol · $269k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
99%
$1.8M vol · $35k liquidity · closes 2026-10-29 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
94%
$8.4M vol · $56k liquidity · closes 2026-10-31 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
88%
$210k vol · $43k liquidity · closes 2026-11-03 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
>99%
$557k vol · closes 2026-09-20 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
8%
$346k vol · $18k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
5%
$458k vol · $64k liquidity · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
World war (long horizon)
Manifold WW3: by 2030
18%
Ṁ6k play-money · 47 traders · closes 2030-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Manifold Will there be WW3 before 2035?
27%
Ṁ4k play-money · 46 traders · closes 2040-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
83%
Ṁ13k play-money · 39 traders · closes 2027-01-01 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Snapshot fetched 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC from public APIs (Polymarket Gamma/CLOB, Kalshi trade API, Manifold v0). Prices are what traders are paying, not my forecasts and not advice; thin or long-dated markets can be far off. Sparklines show daily prices over up to 120 days. Metaculus: API now requires an authenticated account token (HTTP 403 without one) and the website is behind a bot challenge, so Metaculus forecasts are not included. Add a ref type with a personal token later if wanted.
How to add a market
Add a ref to "markets" → "groups" → "refs" in src/themes/<slug>.json: {"platform":"polymarket","event":"<slug after /event/ in the URL>"}, {"platform":"kalshi","event":"<EVENT_TICKER>"} or {"platform":"manifold","id":"<market id or slug>"}. Optional: "markets" (list of specific sub-market slugs or tickers), "max", "sort" (date, prob or api). Then run python3 scripts/update_markets.py <slug> and rebuild.
Notes & journal
Dated observations from src/notes/world-war-3-risk.md. Add a new entry with a ## YYYY-MM-DD Title heading.